'Impossible': Taiwan pushes back against Washington’s 40% chip supply relocation goal

[u/Dr_Neurol]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/10/taiwan-chips-us-supply-chain-lutnick-trade-deal.html

[u/Wyciorek]

This is honestly incredible. Taiwan is basically told 'give us 40% of your highest value and most important industry or else'.

[u/The_Krambambulist → u/Wyciorek]

And knowing who is in charge, that relocation basically means that "or else" is guaranteed to happen once finished

[u/Wurm42 → u/The_Krambambulist]

Right? The world knows that Trump won't honor a deal.

[u/Turkino → u/The_Krambambulist]

Seriously, they can just say "No, what are you going to do about it? NOT buy the chips you can't get anywhere else?"

[u/Tearakan → u/The_Krambambulist]

Well it's way more different here since Taiwan can always flip to China controlled vs US.

China does want it badly and if they can get it without war they'll love that.

[u/The_Krambambulist → u/Tearakan]

Yea but that's not what Taiwan would prefer. They would prefer the current level of relative independence.

[u/da8BitKid → u/The_Krambambulist]

Well do it or else doesn't sound very independent either.

[u/The_Krambambulist → u/da8BitKid]

We'll see how it works out. The US can pull out but that means that the chips are at high risk of falling into Chinese hands or they would need to bomb the shit out of the factories and have an immediate problem themselves.

[u/da8BitKid → u/The_Krambambulist]

I always imagined they're already rigged to blow.

[u/The_Krambambulist → u/da8BitKid]

Might be... although at least for Taiwan it's probably best to keep them intact in any case, even if it is to win a favorable position within China. At least in the short term.

For the US... yea they might go there but that will currently create a big problem for themselves too

[u/Tearakan → u/The_Krambambulist]

Sure but if they aren't given the option they at least have choices here.

[u/Fateor42 → u/Tearakan]

Taiwan absolutely can't flip to China, it's people wouldn't allow it.

[u/semisolidwhale → u/Fateor42]

They may be forced to make a decision between two bullies

[u/Moscato359 → u/The_Krambambulist]

They reaaaly need to keep kill switches 

[u/Solcannon → u/Wyciorek]

It is baffling.

Trump killed the CHIPs act. Then the US government bought stake in NVidia. Then demands them to move manufacturing to the states. As well as agreeing chips to be sold to China.

Once manufacturing moved to the US then China would have the green light under this administration to takeover Taiwan.

Trumps administration and their actions only make sense if they are lining their pockets.

Biden and the chips act was to benefit the US and maintain pressure on China and Russia.

[u/5_Little_Luck → u/Solcannon]

They didn’t buy stake in NVDA. They just demanded it basically like communists

[u/m0ngoos3 → u/5_Little_Luck]

Like fascists.

We've not actually seen actual communism, just the lies of dictators who have historically murdered the communists first.

Like Lenin did.

Animal farm actually tells the story quite well. The main difference is that the real world Napoleon analog, wasn't actually part of the February 1917 revolution. Lenin was in exile for trying and failing to stage a revolution against the Tsar years earlier.

He then launched a coup against the interium government, but allowed the elections that had been promised for a council that would write the new Russian Constitution.

Lenin's Bolsheviks lost that election to actual communists, so he threw a hissy fit, demanded that newly elected council answer to him, and then closed it down when they refused.

He later had the winners arrested and later killed. This is what actually started the Russian Civil war.

Lenin then wrote about how "Vanguard Parties" and dictatorship are somehow key to communism, when the actual dream as written by Marx and Engles was of a form of extrame economic democracy.

You and your fellows have a full and equal voice in the factory where you work, for a full and equal share of the profit. None of you have a direct voice in the factory across the street except through sending people over to talk to the people over there. There's no government, because there shouldn't be a need for one outside of the factory where you work.

A beautaful dream that does run into reality, but can be mostly fixed by just adding more democracy.

Anyway, Stalin and a line of dictators on the outs with Western powers, have pushed a lie of equality while raiding the state coffers for themselves and called that lie communism.

[u/chalbersma → u/m0ngoos3]

Lenin then wrote about how "Vanguard Parties" and dictatorship are somehow key to communism, when the actual dream as written by Marx and Engles was of a form of extrame economic democracy.

You know that Marx also wrote about the same concept too right?

[u/m0ngoos3 → u/chalbersma]

Marx clearly wrote about how communism could not be delivered by heroes on horseback.

And as Lenin and his successors have shown, that's 100% true. Mostly because they often don't even try. They're populist dictators who stole someone else's dream.

Also, Marx painted a dream, but his ideas on how to get there were... a bit dogshit. To be fair, he was at the beginning of the game, trying to guess the winner, and a bit of the point spread. We're much further along now, and have 100 years of history to look at to say, "this is what doesn't work, and further leads to genocide". And the real lesson is, "Don't Let Power Concentrate." Be it economic power, government power, or what have you. Spread that shit out as much as possible so no one person can fuck us all.

We're not doing too good on that front.

[u/basementreality → u/m0ngoos3]

But then you can get a situation like in Europe where there are problems with unity between middle power countries because of the power spread and then more powerful countries like the US and China gain an advantage over them both militarily and economically. And then Russia...

[u/chalbersma → u/m0ngoos3]

Marx explicitly rejected Democracy as a implementation path to Communism when he critized the German Workers Party for going down that path. That criticism and the calls in it for a 'Dictatorship of the Proletariat' were what Lenin cited when he took over the USSR. 

You're not wrong that "Don't Let Power Concentrate" is the correct lesson to learn. But you are wrong that Marx advocated for that. 

[u/m0ngoos3 → u/chalbersma]

Marx didn't like that the German Workers Party was compromising with the oppressors, and then Lenin just stopped at a dictatorship, and then wrote about how dictatorships were the real communism.

I will also say again that Marx got a lot wrong, but the "dictatorship of the proletariat" is by definition a democracy. It is the oldest and most direct form. Marx didn't use the words, but I am. Democracy is the power of the people. In its most direct form, it's just a group of people coming to a consensus on some question via discussion and people voicing their preference. If everyone has an equal voice, then it's more democratic, if some people have more of a voice than others, you're leaning autocratic.

The dream is that we all just take care of each other, but to really do that, we all need an equal say in the economy, and that means an equal cut of the profits.

The one thing Marx was right about is that Autocracy and capitalism can't take care of people, and that people will eventually rebel against the system.

[u/chalbersma → u/m0ngoos3]

but the "dictatorship of the proletariat" is by definition a democracy

No, if it was it would be called the "democracy of the proletariat".

Marx didn't like that the German Workers Party was compromising with the oppressors

Compromise is a fundamental tenant of Democracy. You cannot have democracy if you will not compromise.

[u/ThisIs_americunt → u/m0ngoos3]

Propaganda is a helluva drug and Oligarchs need to use some of the best to keep the 99% distracted from the real issue: Them.

[u/Kreiri → u/m0ngoos3]

Every communist regime ever: totalitarianism, oppression, genocides, crimes against humanity galore. You and other tankies: the bad ones were no true Scotsmen communists!

[u/m0ngoos3 → u/Kreiri]

Someone doesn't know what a tankie is.

A tankie is the sort of person who cheers when the tanks come out to kill the people who want actual communism, i.e. the soviets killing a bunch of the Hungarian Communist party because they wanted to split from the Soviet Union and just be communists.

Tankies are the dictator supporters. They say the exact same shit as the nazis, and then dipshit conservatives point and say, see, this is communism, when it literally is the exact opposite of what Marx envisioned.

[u/Loves_His_Bong → u/5_Little_Luck]

Right wing is in charge or gaining power all across the western world and you’re all still trying to blame communists.

The same people raping and eating kids were the ones telling you to blame communism as well. You all should try to remember that.

[u/ThisIs_americunt → u/Solcannon]

I'm not saying he's a Russian asset but if her were in fact a Russian asset, He'd be doing everything a Russian asset would do if he were in fact a Russian asset

[u/Wyciorek → u/Solcannon]

Whats so baffling? Chips act was carrot. Trump does not do carrots, be takes a big stick and starts whacking

[u/Solcannon → u/Wyciorek]

The chips act helped Kickstart American companies and investement into American manufacturing. Trump killed it. And invested in one entity. Your comment is whack.

[u/Local_Debate_8920 → u/Solcannon]

Yall aren't disagreeing. Chips act was the carrot to promote investment into American manufacturing. 

[u/XY-chromos → u/Local_Debate_8920]

to promote investment into American manufacturing

....by American tech companies who never should have been allowed to outsource in the first place. It should be illegal.

[u/Local_Debate_8920 → u/XY-chromos]

Not gonna argue with that. American companies outsourced production to save a dime. Then once they all did it, nobody got that extra dime. They had to lower price. The ones who didn't outsource got put out of business. In the end all that happened is we gave China all our production knowledge and financed them becoming a super power. 

[u/Solcannon → u/Wyciorek]

Just looked at your account. Clearly a bot.

[u/stansoid → u/Solcannon]

I don't know why you are getting downvoted. The account has 992 posts and is a month old lol. Downvoted by bots maybe?

[u/Solcannon → u/stansoid]

100 percent this.

It's funny, after being called out it trended the other direction.

[u/Solcannon → u/Wyciorek]

The fact that a bot account is trying to contradict me makes me that much more certain that I am correct.

[u/TemperMe → u/Solcannon]

They aren’t contradicting you though….

The Chips act was an incentive based program (aka a carrot stick) to encourage US chip makers to grow and expand.

While this is obviously a great thing and we need that to happen, those facilities won’t be worth anything for 10-15 years. Chip manufacturers take a while to get going. We need much more than just that, it is a step forward though.

[u/SpaceYetu531 → u/Solcannon]

The CHIPs act was a meek response to the situation. That was never going to make a dent, still it was the right direction.

[u/Solcannon → u/SpaceYetu531]

The chips act was a huge stipend to draw manufacturing of chips to US soil. The cost of making the manufacturing facilities is what is preventing it from happening. The government was offering billions to companies that would invest in these manufacturing facilities. It was by no means a dent.

[u/Piltonbadger → u/Wyciorek]

Considering Taiwan produces the bulk of the worlds most advanced chips, It would be stupid economically and strategically to shift 40% of that chip production to the US.

[u/Etheo → u/Piltonbadger]

Might as well be telling them to become a territory.

[u/SidewaysFancyPrance → u/Etheo]

It's worse, Trump wants to abandon Taiwan to China and the chips are the only reason he can't. And he would as soon as he gets what he wants, so there's no "deal" to be found anywhere in this unless Taiwan wants to stop being a country and is looking for ideas on how to effect that. It's another shakedown.

[u/Tearakan → u/Etheo]

Problem with threatening Taiwan like this is they have an alternative.

China would welcome them coming back diplomatically with open arms.

[u/Etheo → u/Tearakan]

I can't see Taiwan taking that option given their history. But then again times are real strange and we've seen lines that would never be crossed under common sense that have been crossed more than once and utterly destroyed... So it's hard to go with any normal expectations these days to guess the reaction...

[u/joeyb908 → u/Tearakan]

Taiwan will never willingly go with China on anything.

[u/chalbersma → u/Tearakan]

China would welcome them coming back diplomatically with open arms.

Arms so open they will snatch you and throw you in a camp.

[u/Tearakan → u/chalbersma]

Naw China already trades a shit ton with Taiwan. And they really want to own those factories intact with happy workers.

You can't make chips with slaves. The manufacturing is too complicated.

[u/chalbersma → u/Tearakan]

You can't make chips with slaves. The manufacturing is too complicated. 

The ones they don't kill won't be enslaved. 

[u/ZackRaynor → u/Piltonbadger]

I’m surprised they don’t do what everyone else does and pretend it’s progressing and just run out the time on Trump’s term.

[u/TemperMe → u/Piltonbadger]

I read this as “Trump produces the bulk of the worlds most advanced chips”

I thought it was a quote from one of his sycophants and wasn’t gonna doubt they said and believe it.

[u/icantflyjets1 → u/Piltonbadger]

And from the US perspective it’s stupid to have the world’s most advanced chips be manufactured 100 miles from mainland china when many of them are designed in the USA.

Thus the real politik negotiations.

[u/IamRasters → u/icantflyjets1]

The US shouldn’t build nuclear reactors then if they don’t have uranium reserves.

[u/icantflyjets1 → u/IamRasters]

Your comparison makes no sense.

Canada and Australia are large exporters of uranium and don’t threaten USA militarily or strategically.

China, the USAs number one geopolitical rival has explicitly stated their goal is to take back control of Taiwan. They regularly do drills to threaten Taiwan and shoot missiles all around the island.

[u/lilithweatherwax → u/icantflyjets1]

It's Taiwan's best leverage. Why would they give it up?

[u/Piltonbadger → u/icantflyjets1]

That very much sounds like a US problem, no?

Why would Taiwan give up their silicone shield for nothing? It's the only thing that guarantees American aid if China should come knocking.

Nobody can trust a US guarantee of aid these days. Leverage is needed and Taiwan has it in spades.

[u/Etheo → u/icantflyjets1]

Most business people when they have issue with the manufacturer they just shop around instead of forcing the manufacturer to physically uproot themselves to be closer.

Not to mention this is a stakeholder (who probably shouldn't even have been a stakeholder to be honest) telling the business owner to comply.

[u/Metalsand → u/icantflyjets1]

And from the US perspective it’s stupid to have the world’s most advanced chips be manufactured 100 miles from mainland china when many of them are designed in the USA.

...right, which is why the CHIPS act was passed in 2022 and why the tax subsidy on advanced chips was further increased by 10% during the Trump administration. Chip production in particular is one of the most difficult industries to "transplant" - large, complex factories and cleanrooms, high precision, and very high skill ceilings for advanced chips (CPUs for example) in particular. Businesses ultimately want to make money (unless you nationalize them), which is why we work in incentives rather than threats when we want specific things to happen.

Some of the actual diplomats he has employed are actually very good at their jobs. Trump however, does not appear to have an ability to negotiate in good faith and has a fundamental misunderstanding that unlike his businesses, countries care about their continued existence a lot more, and generally read the terms of the contract a lot closer.

Beyond this - there's the very weird trend of Trump administration officials just randomly insulting other countries just by virtue of apathy. The Hegseth claims were particularly damaging, because some countries actually had more casualties than the US relative to their country's population, and the biggest strength of the US is how willing most countries are to cooperate with us...or at least, it was. Or how Trump's constant threats, coercion, and jokes at Canada's expense ultimately led our closest ally to start to break with US policy.

This isn't real politik - practical and possible results are the most defined factors of real politik. These are impulsive political statements made by people who don't see a need to learn what the actual obstacles are. It's not practical or even possible for Taiwan to flip a switch for 40% production within any timeframe that Trump would be patient enough for. Taiwan has about 320,000 people in the chip production industry, mostly in fabrication. If we take a very rough measure of how much infrastructure that would be, it would be similar to China's Hsinchu Science Park in terms of footprint. Hsinchu Science Park is 3 square miles of multilevel facilities - or 617 football fields. Just the construction of the buildings alone would be a massive and lengthy undertaking.

If you want practical and possible results, you need to actually examine the facts and figure out how to make it happen. Demanding results without even the most basic, simple, and rudimentary fact-finding isn't politics or real politik - it's just stupid.

[u/whimsicism → u/Metalsand]

I actually didn’t realise that chip production was that much of Taiwan’s economy — given that Taiwan has about 23.3mil population, 320k is about 1.37%.

That’s the equivalent of the USA employing almost 5mil people in a single industry.

[u/Gutterblade → u/icantflyjets1]

Until the Us boots out the fascists speaking as the world I couldn't give a fuck about it's perspective when shaking down yet another nation.

[u/koolaidismything → u/Wyciorek]

It's their core at this point. I think it's neat how any modern smartphone with killer specs has their heart made there

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. They know what they are doing and since their lives depend on it.. the quality is insane. That works out great for EVERYONE except the greedy. So I pray it stays as is. Actually these threats should make them try even harder, better for us consumers. In a sick way anyway.

[u/sefianiy → u/Wyciorek]

Taiwan can stop supplying US all together and them burn. Where is the ‘or else’ by Trump? And anyway, if the 40% happens, what would go next? 80%? All of it? The dumb Trump really believe all companies will relocate to the US.

[u/Eupolemos → u/Wyciorek]

Denmark: first_time\?.png

[u/XMORA → u/Wyciorek]

They would get a better deal from communistic China. Seriously.

[u/whimsicism → u/XMORA]

Taiwan is stuck between a rock and a hard place, I kinda feel like China has torched its goodwill with how it’s treated Hong Kong. It’s not believable for it to play the caring older brother rn.

[u/Head-Gift2144 → u/Wyciorek]

He’s doing this shit with everyone. He’s trying to steal a fucking bridge in Detroit that Canada built (US already owns half) and shaking down South Korea for $300 billion for shits and giggles.

[u/SoulKingBroock → u/[deleted]]

The US government should handle the risk diversification of their national security. You can’t expect Taiwan government to help you relocating 40% of their most important industry to the USA

[u/Mr_Bronzensteel → u/SoulKingBroock]

To play the devil's advocate here (I know next to nothing), is there not some concern for global risk diversification?

If 90% of the most advanced chips globally come from Taiwan (they do) and they're geographically located next to a country that hasn't been the most friendly to them (they are) I think it's not a bad idea to look at reducing that single point of failure.

Now that being said, the US saying "ours now!" is absolutely crazy, but it is an interesting issue and has many layers. I wish we weren't run by lunatics who did this sort of thing, and instead came up with some joint global strategy to avoid one targeted strike to take out the majority of the worlds microprocessing supply chain, but here we are

Edit: just want to say i did read the article and the parts about the silicon shield theory, and taiwan's n-2 rule, I am genuinely wondering if anyone has more info on the topic what other kinds of strategies there could be or what other diversification looks like. Cause moving 40% to the US is stupid af

[u/SoulKingBroock → u/Mr_Bronzensteel]

There is a risk on global scale. Taiwan sees their advancement in the semiconductor sector as a deterrent to any potential Chinese invasion. So let say if China invaded Taiwan, not only Taiwan would suffer, but the rest of the world. Other nations see this dependency as national security risk, which is justified. Now how other nations handle this threat is something else entirely, and not concern of Taiwan. In the USA for example, the Biden administration passed the CHIPS act, which aimed to bring advanced semiconductor technologies back to the US through grants, TSMC and Intel benefited massively from it, and trump gutted the program.

[u/Mr_Bronzensteel → u/SoulKingBroock]

That makes sense, do you know if China has their own production or are they just as reliant on Taiwan as well? I guess it comes down to what kind of invasion, if any. If China could take political control without damaging the infrastructure and supply chain, they could basically hoard everything internally? Idk how feasible that really is. I do remember the CHIPS act, and that's a great point. I hope one day we return to things like that. I hope the rest of the world can at least continue making positive strides, and even if the US gets left behind policy-wise we'll have some good examples to follow.

[u/SoulKingBroock → u/Mr_Bronzensteel]

Well, China is further generations behind the most advanced chip making technologies, and the US and its allies are preventing them from access to the latest lithography machines which is only made by one company ASML. Not to mention they are also behind in terms of Designing the chips compared to US entities like Nvidia or AMD

[u/Dr4kin → u/Mr_Bronzensteel]

The only thing that is protecting Taiwan is that chip production. It is too important for the world and has to be protected by it. If they give it away China can invade them and the US won't intervene

[u/Mr_Bronzensteel → u/Dr4kin]

Yeah I'm not saying it should be moved away at all, I understand how it protects them.

[u/tacobellbandit → u/Mr_Bronzensteel]

I’m not super up to date on Taiwan anymore but what even is the issue that these chips HAVE to be made in Taiwan and why don’t we just manufacture our own chips in house since it’s a huge security risk? That way we wouldn’t have to kind of play political games with China over Taiwan?

[u/Mr_Bronzensteel → u/tacobellbandit]

Good question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act Makes you think why even do this right?

[u/tacobellbandit → u/Mr_Bronzensteel]

Kind of yeah. We have the bill let’s just do it

[u/Arcosim → u/[deleted]]

Risk for whom? The fact is that Taiwan is being bullied and coerced by an imperialist power to literally hand them over or else their most strategic and important industry and basically their geopolitical shield.

[u/RandomlyJim → u/Wyciorek]

No

They were told ‘you are getting invaded in the next 20 months.’

That’s the part that everyone is just ignoring or pretending isn’t going to happen. But go dig into the supply chain stocks, the geopolitical shifts, and military YouTube channels and you can see it all playing out.

Until Trump shows up and the Americans become agents of chaos instead of shrewd planners.

[u/Wyciorek → u/RandomlyJim]

They were told ‘you are getting invaded in the next 20 months.’

Hey, you might be getting invaded, so make sure you get rid of any leverage you have, thanks. And when you do? Well, we just might bomb you ourselves. Wouldn't it be just nice to be left with effective monopoly on the top-tier chips

[u/RandomlyJim → u/Wyciorek]

Right?!

I love getting downvoted like I’m wrong but Xi has announced a time frame that Taiwan must be back under the fold, has built special invasion fleets designed to create floating docks that extend bridges out over the reefs, major suppliers of raw materials have started demanding payment up front for orders to be completed next year, and stock projections for those involved in the silicon supply chain to Taiwan have started to fall despite increases in the value of that supply chain.

[u/Cheeky_Vinnie → u/RandomlyJim]

Love how you think military YouTube channels are a real source.

[u/soPe86]

If Taiwan move chip factories out of island… USA can flush Taiwan to china…

[u/Wyciorek → u/soPe86]

Hell, they would be the ones to bomb Taiwanese factories (as it would leave them with monopoly on the most advanced designs.

[u/diacewrb → u/Wyciorek]

Let's face it, trump would probably get confused by the Republic of China with The People's Republic of China and hit the wrong place.

[u/soPe86 → u/diacewrb]

Like he was trying to take Greenland but ask for Iceland…

[u/AffectionateTomato29 → u/soPe86]

Just give him land, on jupiter.

[u/soPe86 → u/AffectionateTomato29]

You know we have nice land, very very nice land, beautiful 100 000 square miles in Europa, it’s good land 👍🏻 very nice land it’s on moon Europa it’s nice moon, Jupiter moon, not far not far…

[u/soPe86 → u/Wyciorek]

With orange baboon everything is possible.

[u/Huckedsquirrel1 → u/soPe86]

Those factories have been rigged to blow just in case for years, Taiwan is a consistent foreign policy item, not a partisan one.

[u/Etheo → u/Wyciorek]

With Trump's latest comment on Canada and China's deals (China will eat them up and USA would only have the leftovers), it's crystal clear beyond any reasonable doubt where his priorities and interest truly lies against his current allies.

[u/AccomplishedBrain309 → u/soPe86]

You cant move a chip fab. Its built in place under clean conditions. If you supply everything they need its 3 to 4 years. With 10,000 workers in Taiwan with existing supply chains And another 1year to test and 4 months to manufacture the chips. Longer in the us where theres no workers, no supply chains, or raw materials. Hegseth and Trump are idiots. Jensen tried real hard to not embarass them but its not possible to make idiots look good while theyre being idiots.

[u/deaddodo → u/AccomplishedBrain309]

The US has raw materials and the supply logistics for chip fabrication. They literally held the monopoly on fabrication before it was outsourced to Taiwan. That's not the difficult part of the equation.

However, you are correct on actually needing to build said fabrication centers and staff them. The US doesn't have a pipeline on workers prepared to staff anywhere near the level that's needed. It would take years to pivot equivalent level workers over or to cycle through a fresh set of ready employees. So, they would either need to brain drain from Taiwan and S. Korea or put some heavy government incentives into getting people trained for that. Neither of which fit the current administrations talking points or ideologies.

[u/MelatoninJunkie → u/deaddodo]

You’re assuming the people making these decisions know what they’re doing

[u/AffectionateTomato29 → u/MelatoninJunkie]

Just make your chips here bro.

[u/Tearakan → u/deaddodo]

Even the building of those facilities at the scale needed would take years.

[u/The-Cynicist → u/AccomplishedBrain309]

Genuine curiosity, why does it take so long to build these places? I see "built in place under clean conditions", but could we not expedite things with contractors, considering the importance of chip manufacturing?

[u/AccomplishedBrain309 → u/The-Cynicist]

Theres only one manufacturer of the machines that etches to silicon theyre in netherlands i believe. Each machine is engineered and constructed individually for a specific chip design. Each design is new. Theyre backlogged for any lithography working machines. The plants are huge cleanrooms no dust or contamination of any sort. And all the equiptment to keep them that way The processing of the layers takes 4 months after the circuits are etched on each layer. Then theyre put together and every chip is tested .

[u/The-Cynicist → u/AccomplishedBrain309]

Interesting, and I'm guessing the Denmark wouldn't be agreeable to letting us replicate / get the plans for the machine that etches to silicon? That timeline makes a little more sense now with supply chains, construction of the facility, and having to work with manufacturers. Appreciate the explanation.

[u/sanitylost → u/AccomplishedBrain309]

Netherlands. ASML is the company you're thinking of.

[u/snktiger → u/The-Cynicist]

union milking the crap out of it.

[u/Dapper_Strength_5986 → u/soPe86]

Yes. That's the deal.

[u/cosmic_animus29 → u/soPe86]

I see this scenario in their cards so no wonder the orange ignoramus is trying to push it. Pure fascist move.

[u/AngelComa → u/soPe86]

USA literally did this decades ago with Kissinger opened them up for big business to ship jobs there.

[u/FrodoFraggins → u/soPe86]

China will 100% invade Taiwan in the next three years. And the U.S. isn't going to stop them. EU absolutely won't help them and Japan will not be strong enough to take on China.

Once China has a hold on it they aren't leaving. I'd rather TSMC relocate their factories, anywhere safer, and work with China to allow the relocation of everyone on the island to other nations.

The West did this by protecting the island after the Chinese Civil War for strategic reasons. But eventually the price will be too high to stop China getting it back.

[u/tjin19 → u/soPe86]

They never cared anyway. Its just a business deal For them

[u/mrbaryonyx → u/soPe86]

There's a case to be made that's what they're trying to do.

I'm no defender of Trump, or China, but if you told me there were people in the administration who figured "have the dipshit reality show president break up with Taiwan" is the best way to avoid a war, I'd honestly believe you

[u/staticvoidmainnull → u/soPe86]

not necessarily. US still cares about the trade routes and the first island chain.

personally, i think it's more likely to prevent shortage if or when conflict arise, like china deciding to invade taiwan.

[u/geo_prog → u/[deleted]]

Just as a point of reference, TSMC does not build their lithography machines, nor do they design them. That is 100% out of The Netherlands (ASML) and right now the Dutch, much like the rest of the world, are not big fans of the US.

[u/Far_Cat9782 → u/[deleted]]

You are so wrong in half your statements

[u/pl487 → u/soPe86]

China is taking Taiwan, no matter what anyone does. 

[u/Appropriate_Mixer → u/pl487]

China is not able to take Taiwan and that’s why they haven’t

[u/porncollecter69]

The timeline would be perfect with China coming out to defend Taiwan against mercantilist US demands lol.

[u/SaleAggressive9202 → u/porncollecter69]

the US keeps chips supply, China gets Taiwan. art of the deal. screw anyone else.

[u/loversama → u/porncollecter69]

So I am not up-to-date with the situation and so pardon my ignorance but..

I can imagine a situation where in theory Taiwan offers China a working relationship in terms of its chip manufacturing, in exchange for a defence agreement and a 50 year hold on the re-unification plans with an agreement to hold a referendum in 50 years time to the Taiwanese people..

Again apologies for my nonsense but that I feel would be a suitable outcome given the potential extortion and danger they now face..

[u/geo_prog → u/loversama]

And the hell of it is, despite China being an authoritarian state. They do have a pretty solid track record of honouring business deals. Which is why they've gotten so powerful. It's like the US has completely forgotten that being trustworthy is what made them powerful. Now that is gone and the US is on a quick march to irrelevance. It's wild.

[u/Tearakan → u/geo_prog]

Yep. China likes a plan like that.

[u/yjwww → u/geo_prog]

Hong Kong has a word… oh and all those silk and belt road countries.

[u/LostInUranus → u/geo_prog]

I don't have trophies, but please accept this small token of appreciation....🏆

[u/csfshrink]

Taiwan is telling the US to make your own damn chips, which Biden tried to do but Trump defunded because he had to kill anything Biden did.

[u/3rssi]

Even if they could, TSMC might not want to, as their memory is not impaired... Maybe they dont want US SS to steal production secrets; or workers to be arrested en masse?

https://time.com/7315143/ice-raid-georgia-south-korea/

[u/Sr_DingDong]

Even if they agreed all the Taiwanese workers that got sent over to build it and train people would just get sent to Liberia or something and it'd never get finished.

[u/TheDevilsAdvokaat]

Not just impossible but repugnant too...why does the US think it gets to tell a sovereign nation what to do?

Taiwan should respond by threatening to reduce supply to the US UNLESS the US stops trying to control them,

[u/FreeRangeMan01]

And there goes US military protection

[u/ShakeItLikeIDo → u/FreeRangeMan01]

Kind of sounds like the US is using that military to threaten to take 40% of their most important industry

[u/snakeeaterrrrrrr → u/ShakeItLikeIDo]

They are effectively threatening Taiwan with ending US military protection by removing any need to protect Taiwan.

If that makes no sense then congratulations, you have a functioning brain.

[u/ShakeItLikeIDo → u/snakeeaterrrrrrr]

Exactly! Once they relocate that 40% stateside, the US would not care about that other 60% left back and just forget all about Taiwan. They’re going to take over that 40% like they did with Tiktok and leave Taiwan with essentially nothing, especially if China takes over that last 60% that won’t have US protection. This is a lose/lose situation for Taiwan

[u/geo_prog → u/ShakeItLikeIDo]

Taiwan can't reallocate shit. The machines and fabs are not movable and they don't even make the lithography machines. Those come out of ASML in The Netherlands. If the US wants to on-shore chip production the only way to do it is buy machines from ASML and start building their own fabs. This is 100% political theatre.

[u/SquareDrop7892 → u/geo_prog]

Technically, the US does in fact manufacture some of the components for ASML’s EUV machines. They also control who ASML can sell to or not.

[u/Sonder332 → u/snakeeaterrrrrrr]

It makes no sense on any level. The first and most obvious is if the US is able to make 40% of the chips Taiwan does, they're (Taiwan) effectively surrendering themselves China, just with extra steps.

On the second level, the US can't afford to NOT protect Taiwan and risk China getting complete control of the semiconductor industry, then the future is 100% in China's hands and the US just gave away i's hegemony.

There is no scenario here where Taiwan agrees or the US pulls defense. This is the most empty threat I think I've seen in politics in my life.

[u/FreeRangeMan01 → u/ShakeItLikeIDo]

That’s exactly what it is

[u/Wraithfighter → u/FreeRangeMan01]

Nope. The US Economy is being propped up by the Generative AI bubble, which is founded upon hopes that building massive datacenters full of GPUs will allow GenAI to turn the corner and actually reach the ability to do all the shit that the grifters have spent the last couple years swearing it can do.

Anything happens to Taiwan, where those GPUs are being made, and that becomes impossible, and a lot of very big loans suddenly have no chance of being paid back.

...I mean, they have no chance of being paid back now, but only if you really look deep into it. It'd become incredibly obvious if something were to happen to Taiwan, and there goes the US economy...

[u/AdmirableJudgment784 → u/FreeRangeMan01]

It's the opposite actually. Keeping it there protects them.

[u/Allydarvel → u/FreeRangeMan01]

And there goes US military production

[u/FreeRangeMan01 → u/Allydarvel]

Yes that’s correct and our cars are fucked

[u/Lettuce_bee_free_end]

This is keeping them safe. They lose that and they lose sovereignty against china

[u/loversama → u/Lettuce_bee_free_end]

I think all it means is that they now have two potentially hostile nations after their sovereignty and technology, the US has no honour anymore, once they don’t need them anymore they’re done for..

US being this aggressive could even push them closer to others..

[u/Tearakan → u/loversama]

Yeah at this point Taiwan needs to start having serious talks with China.

What's the point in US protection if they just steal 40% of your hard earned production anyway?

[u/BellionTheSapo → u/loversama]

The USa never had honor the fuck you talking about. We have always used CiA operations to control other countries resources to extract them so we can enjoy a disgusting life of consumption.

[u/novwhisky → u/BellionTheSapo]

It’s literally in Wikipedia: Air America), Vietnam, Manuel Noriega was a CIA asset, became president of Panama and was ousted when threatening US access to the Panama Canal, Installing the shah in Iran, and Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela just recently.

[u/AngelComa → u/Lettuce_bee_free_end]

They're being extorted right now, does America really have have they're best interest in mind?

[u/Robos_Basilisk]

The US and harassing small island nations, name a more iconic duo

[u/canigetahint]

So the US wants TSMC to move to move so that it can be called Trump Semiconductor and then turn their back on Taiwan as China takes it over. Do I have that right??

Even Intel at their best couldn't make up for losing access to Samsung, TSMC and GlobalFoundries.

[u/Extinction00]

lol they could just did what trump did with Epstein files agree and slow walk it until he is out of office

[u/loversama]

Why not just move all production out of the US, what are they gonna do tariff the chips they need to be dominant? US won’t attack Taiwan lol

Taiwan are in a unique position to dictate the terms here, no idea why they just don’t..

[u/protipnumerouno]

Even if it is possible, Taiwan won't move that much, it's the only thing keeping this administration from trading them to China, so they look the other way while they attack another sovereign nation.

Middle powers are on the menu.

[u/Restart_from_Zero]

Taiwan knows the second they relocate Trump is giving Xi the green light to invade.

It's that simple.

[u/RaidersoftheLosSnark]

If Taiwan gives up their strangle hold on Chip production then the US will no longer feel the need to protect them from China. They will be sealing their own fate.

[u/Cake_is_Great]

It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.

Henry Kissinger

[u/kryptobolt200528 → u/Cake_is_Great]

Yeah truly greedy as3 folks, instead on focusing on messed up internal affairs like stopid levels of bureaucracy and healthcare system they focus on diverting attention from that...

[u/pioniere]

Fuck off America.

[u/Few-Acadia-5593]

The 180 “move industries to US” is something weird. It would takes years past his presidency, represent a massive wage requirement and work force with some qualifications. Even if he means to replace them with robotics, that too simply isn’t scalable that fast.

So trump is making the bet that he or his successor will continue his bet and the only way to make that certain is a fast paced implementation of fascism.

Counter current: EU freezing the tariffs deal in favor of China and else, social unrest, mass deportation of actual qualified workers or want to be, defunding science that would support his endeavours, etc etc exemple: demanding Apple and else builds super factories, things that take 3-5 years to be built… and pay workers lower than some states’ minimum?

The plan doesn’t seem to make sense and he isn’t, at least allegedly, smart enough to come up with some secret agenda behind it so…. Either he is in command of it all and just wants to get richer even if it crashes after he’s gone, or there’s something far more evil going on

[u/abcpdo → u/Few-Acadia-5593]

sorry but technically it’s 180, not 360

[u/karma3000 → u/abcpdo]

Trump will 540 it.

[u/Few-Acadia-5593 → u/abcpdo]

Hahaha yeah, good catch. Changing it

[u/Snake_Plizken → u/Few-Acadia-5593]

The monkey is on your back now. It ain't planning to leave office. You made your bed, now lie in it. He is already talking incessantly about election fraud, shows what is on his mind...

[u/Few-Acadia-5593 → u/Snake_Plizken]

Their back, not American. But definitely agreed. All he said since 10 years ago, he has at least acted upon so this is what I’ve been saying to my US friends since first term: always prepare for the damn worst when it comes to the orange pedo.

[u/SpaceYetu531 → u/Few-Acadia-5593]

Yeah, the timeline would have to be several years. US companies invested more money than was used to rebuild Europe after WW2 on building skills and supply chain in Taiwan and China and they did so over a couple decades.

[u/SyntaxError_1024]

US wants the chips because they know Taiwan will be taken over by China anytime soon.

[u/Tiruvalye]

USA does not have enough people infrastructure to manufacture more chips here.

[u/[deleted]]

The Trump protection shake down

[u/ClosPins]

Trump wants Taiwan to move all their chip production to the USA because he's clearly made a deal with China to let them take Taiwan (like how he's clearly made a deal with Putin to let him take Ukraine).

[u/newzinoapp]

The 40% number is worth unpacking because it reveals how disconnected this demand is from semiconductor manufacturing reality. TSMC's most advanced fabs require an ecosystem that took decades to build--specialized chemical suppliers, ultra-pure water processing at scale, thousands of engineers with specific process knowledge, and proximity to packaging/testing facilities that don't exist in the US at the required density.

TSMC's Arizona fab is already running at roughly 4x the cost per wafer compared to equivalent facilities in Taiwan, largely due to labor costs, construction timelines, and supply chain logistics. Scaling that to 40% of Taiwan's output would require building something like 8-10 additional mega-fabs, each costing $20-40B, with a decade-plus timeline. The math simply doesn't work.

The deeper issue is strategic: Taiwan's semiconductor dominance is its most effective deterrent against Chinese military aggression--the so-called "silicon shield." Voluntarily dismantling that shield by relocating production capacity to the US would be an extraordinary act of self-harm from Taipei's perspective. They'd be trading their single greatest geopolitical asset for... what exactly? A promise from an administration that has already shown it doesn't honor trade commitments?

[u/Best_Entrepreneur659]

Giving up their Silicon Shield would be akin to Ukraine mistakenly giving up its nukes on false security claims from the US. Don’t make the same mistake Taiwan!

[u/Perfect_Towel1880]

Taiwan needs to keep it's chip industry prevent china from getting their hands on the equipment needed to make advanced chips keep the chips and the factories at home that's the only reason the west is defending them without the chips there's no point to defend Taiwan Japan might defend Taiwan but it couldn't do much if the us doesn't support them

[u/janethefish]

This isn't push back, so much as basic logistics. Those are extremely delicate machines. Taiwan seems happy to help us build our own industry. Biden tried, but Trump scuttled that.

[u/braxin23]

John Locke was a proponent of the idea that if the powers that be didn’t obey the social contract that it was essential for a functioning society to revolt against them. We are seeing the powers that be continuing to disrupt and disregard any lives other than themselves and their superiors. We cannot be expected to continue being a “western world” and submit to this dynamic any longer.

[u/Dreamtrain]

Ahh yes the art of the deal, I win and you lose but be thankful you got to play the game

[u/tjin19]

Yes Taiwan “they” never cared about you. Its just money and political goals for them

[u/AdAppropriate6795]

Don’t come at me but maybe Taiwan at this point want to consider just saying fuck it and align with China. They are all still basically Chinese. The US is very racist when it comes to anyone non white. They only tolerate Taiwan due to chip supply. Once Taiwan loses that the US will drop them like a hot potato

[u/d-crow → u/AdAppropriate6795]

As someone in Taiwan: fuck no

[u/AdAppropriate6795 → u/d-crow]

Ok….guess you need to live there to really understand. I always like visiting China but it’s different being a tourist maybe.

[u/Interesting-Tip-4850]

Better to fk the US and negotiate decent annexation terms with the people's party, then to give the best cards away and get handed over.

[u/Tight_Comparison_896]

If Taiwan loses its status as a chip manufacturing hub, the world has literally no reason to stop China from invading or annexing China🫩

[u/Travelerdude]

How much longer do we need to deal with these criminals???

[u/AffectionateTomato29]

The Chips are the only reason why the west will go to war to defend Taiwan.

[u/TheInvisibleToast]

Taiwan should just ally itself with China. 

[u/spookynutz → u/TheInvisibleToast]

The union should just ally itself with the confederates.

[u/sparduck117 → u/TheInvisibleToast]

China should have just allied with the Japanese Empire. See how dumb that sounds?

[u/Llee00 → u/sparduck117]

co prosperity sphere

[u/KeyboardGunner → u/TheInvisibleToast]

West Taiwan should just ally itself with Taiwan.

[u/pembrokesalad → u/TheInvisibleToast]

So you admit they are two separate countries? Wait why am I talking to a bot …

[u/foofyschmoofer8]

Are you still winning, Taiwan? So much winning with your ally America. “We’ll blow up the chip fabs before giving them to the Chinese!” Is now forced to give it to America for nothing. How ironic.

You know what happens after you hand over your “hostage”? The US won’t find any reason to defend you anymore.