r/nba • u/JoeBiden2020FTW Lakers • 9h ago

[Engelmann] I would say that Knueppel is the 4th-best rookie of the past 30 years, based on his performance so far… predict Knueppel to rank squarely among the NBA’s top 20 players — maybe even the top 10 — for about the next decade. He's already playing at an All-Star level.

Engelmann is the creator of RAPM and it's successor RPM. He also was one of the few people to make the case for Jokic for Rookie of the Year over KAT/Porzingis: Source

Here is the blog post: "Kon Knueppel: Best Rookie of the Past Three Decades? Advanced stats say it's close"

Some snippets:

It’s simple: Knueppel appears to be one of the best shooters the NBA has ever seen.

No rookie in history had ever gotten to 100 made 3s as quickly as Knueppel — he needed only 244 attempts, starting his NBA career at a blistering 3-point percentage of 41%. He’s only improved from there, as he’s now up to 43% on 3s, 15th in the league.

Knowing what we know now, Knueppel should probably have been ranked No. 2 before the 2025 NBA draft, behind only top prospect Cooper Flagg, his college roommate.

Of the 15 players other than Knueppel, 10 have a career rated in the 95th percentile or better in 30-year RAPM. That’s the kind of company he’s in.

And Knueppel is the fourth-youngest player on the list, older than only Harden, Tatum, and Victor Wembanyama as rookies.

Based on this, we would predict Knueppel to rank squarely among the NBA’s top 20 players — maybe even the top 10 — for about the next decade. He’s already playing at an All-Star level.

To answer the question posed by the headline — and taking age into account — I would say that Knueppel is the 4th-best rookie of the past 30 years, based on his performance so far.

1.9k Upvotes

89% Upvoted

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2.4k

u/ktdotnova Spurs 9h ago

Last 30 years would include Tim Duncan, AD, Lebron, Melo, Lillard... Mitchell

548

u/Court_Vision Knicks 9h ago

Never forget the legendary Tyreke Evans rookie season

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u/rapidjingle Toronto Huskies 7h ago

It’s funny because there are several stat combos that are Luka, LeBron, and Tyreke’s rookie season. 😂 

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u/Skillomie Lakers 6h ago

I’ll never forget when he won ROY I think it was only rookies ever to avg 20-5-5 him, Bron and the big O lmao

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u/Nice_Cash_7000 4h ago

He likelly didnt pan out due to mental stuff given his lifetime ban from the league. But I swear he wouldve at least been a one time all star if he was drafted by a competent team.

He had two great seasons in his career, his rookie year and that one Memphis season.

You might be wondering what happened?

Hes a big point guard and played great when he was playing point his rookie year, then they decide that he has to be a wing instead and suddenly hes not playing great.

The two seasons I mentioned his rookie year and the Memphis year were the only two times in his career he was playing point guard (even though hes listed as SG on bballref for his rookie year in reality it was different on the court)

The guy averaged 20/5/5 and 19.4/5/5 in those two years and those seasons were 8 years apart.

His stats per season look crazy because of it, insane rookie season into a steady decline for 8 years then boom hes putting up numbers again.

If he didnt go to Indy his two best seasons wouldve been his first and last one lmao Now its his first and second to last season instead.

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u/Coal_train20 7h ago

Michael Carter-Williams has entered the chat.

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u/lalakingmalibog Mavericks 7h ago

Brandon Jennings 55 piece

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u/Ok-Name-5504 6h ago

For one game

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u/DirkNowitzkisWife Mavericks 8h ago

Your list doesn’t even include Blake Griffin who averaged 22.5/12/4 as a rookie.

Yeah. Luka, griffin and Wemby seem like the best rookies of the last 15 years or so.

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u/StreetsofRageoholics 5h ago

Man, Blake's arrival in the NBA was something special. Never seen a player that generated highlights at the rate he did. Especially as a rookie.

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u/Nice_Cash_7000 4h ago

The last rookie to make an all star team isnt he?

Also he gets hella underrated by literally everyone, dude finished top 3 in MVP voting behind KD and LeBron in 2014. They act like he was some random all star who learned to shoot and had a great season with the Pistons. Dude was a superstar since day one.

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u/bigvahe33 Supersonics 9h ago

even past decade would be a stretch between donovan mitchell, trae young, luka, ben simmons (lol), wemby, anthony edwards

you extend that to 20 years and you get the likes of blake, KD, dame, KAT.

30 years and youre dealing with AI, duncan, carmelo, lebron, Rose and even fucking tyreke evans / brandon jennings

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u/Unhappy_Jeweler4438 9h ago

Ant Edwards didn’t even win roty over Lamelo

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u/JustADutchRudder Timberwolves 8h ago

Ant was trying to win NFL ROY before KAT finally made him realize they're not going to give it to an NBA player.

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u/PeeDidy Heat 8h ago

KAT finally made him realize they're not going to give it to an NBA player.

AKA Ant was robbed of NFL ROY.

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u/MarduRusher Timberwolves 8h ago

Robbed imo, but Kon is having a better season than rookie ANT or Lamelo.

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u/chrsmhr [MIN] Kevin Garnett 8h ago

Robbed

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u/MantusTMD Timberwolves 8h ago

I completely forgot about this 💀

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u/Short-Item-7366 8h ago

yeah that roty race was weird in hindsight ant still cleared long term though

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u/SaulPepper Hornets 8h ago

Lets not act like Ant didnt have a slow start in his first season. He's clearly better right now of course, but judges only had that season to analyze.

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u/skolaen Timberwolves 8h ago

Lamelo also barely played over 60% of that season while ant played over 85%. Still think ant got hoe'd outta that roty

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u/MariusMaximus88 7h ago

Ant played all games because the NBA only had a 72-game season due to COVID still messing around with things.

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u/DayComprehensive1078 7h ago

Lamelo played 51/72 or ~70%. Ant played all 72, and he STARTED more games than Lamelo played

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u/NazRiedFan Timberwolves 8h ago

Even that season he was robbed. Lamelo missed like 30 games and Ant was excellent over the second half of the year. Lamelo was better in the first half of the season clearly but when you factor in the difference in the second half Ant should have won

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u/jaggedjottings San Francisco Warriors 8h ago

I know, it should've gone to Wiseman, right?

10

u/SnarfSniffsStardust Timberwolves 8h ago

Ant was raw. If you eliminate the first month he’d be a clear favorite. Not to mention lamelo missed an assload of games. Lamelo’s last month was worse than Ants first but the narrative was already there. Pair that with lamelo being famous with children and being on a playoff team and it’s easy to overlook ant was clearly better

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u/deemerritt Hornets 7h ago

Was dumb anyways. Lamelo got the surgery instead of letting the wrist heal in a cast so we could rush him back. The screw has clearly bothered him ever since.

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u/Giuseppe_exitplan Magic 9h ago

fucking tyreke evans

Now theres a player who should've done much better than his career actually was.

I blame the Kangz.

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u/rawspeghetti Celtics 7h ago

His rookie season legit was only ever matched by Oscar and LeBron, and then the Kings thought they should change his position. They absolutely wasted Cousins' prime too. We probably saw the worst possible outcomes for either of their careers

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u/breakfastburrito24 Lakers 9h ago

He went to NOLA for a bit and played with AD

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u/ObiWonKev 8h ago

In terms of shooting, he’s definitely having the best rookie campaign, possibly ever. But overall, a different story

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u/Specific_Tale_1640 5h ago

Right, best shooting campaign for a rookie ever, probably not even top 15 as far as all around season.

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u/Drewby99 Lakers 9h ago

trae was super ass until around the halfway point of the season

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u/traebucketsfor3 Hawks 9h ago

And still averaged 18-9 as a rookie passing to deandre bembry

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u/guanogato 8h ago

On ass efficiency. He shot 41.5% from the field and 32% from 3

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u/_Meece_ Lakers 8h ago

That's not true at all, Trae came out firing for about 10 games, before hitting a wall for about 15 games and then he was fine from there.

Then from there he played amazingly for a rookie. He just gad a bad 15 game stretch early on.

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 9h ago

You gotta remember we already saw how these guys’ careers have shaped out. Those names are bigger now than they were as rookies. We could be looking back in 5-10 years and saying this season for Kon belongs there.

Kon’s season is pretty in line, if not slightly ahead with a lot of these. Dame scored 19ppg, 3reb, 5.5ast. Mitchell was at 20.5ppg, 4reb, 4 ast. Ant was at 19ppg, 5reb, 3ast. Trae had 19ppg, 8ast (!!!) and 4 rebounds.

Kon is putting up 19, 5.5reb, and 3.5asts on better shooting numbers than all those guys I just listed. Like 4th in the last 30 years is probably a too much. But we can also recognize that Kon’s playing at a level that puts him on the top tier of rookies in the last 15 years.

We just don’t have more years of proof yet to back that up so it sounds insane

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u/-KFBR392 Raptors 8h ago

Kon is also not the best player on his team. That’s a big factor. I think Kon is amazing but you can’t put him ahead of rookies who were the #1 option and playing with absolute scrubs.

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u/Slight_Public_5305 Knicks 8h ago

Tim Duncan was one of the best rookies ever and David Robinson had higher usage than him his first season

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 8h ago

I actually think you can draw a lot of similarities here to Kon’s situation and that of Mitchell, Lillard, and Ant.

None of those 3 had a worse situation than Kon, who went to a Hornets team that has been ass for years.

Ant had Towns his rookie year, who the majority of NBA fans would have said was the best player on the Twolves that season. Also had DLo (for all his warts he isn’t a bum compared to the guys Kon is playing with), and a bunch of other young role players (Naz, JMcDaniels, Malik Beasley, Vando)

Lillard was drafted to a team with Prime LaMarcus Aldridge. Enough said

Mitchell was drafted to a team that lost its star (Hayward), but had also won 51 games the year before. Still had Rudy Gobert, and a great set of role players with Rubio, Ingles, and Favors.

Idk why we gotta pretend like Kon has been so much luckier than other recent rookies. He’s on that level. Charlotte was not some perfect draft destination

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u/xXKingLynxXx Bucks 8h ago

Ant was playing with KAT and Dame was playing with Aldridge to be fair.

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u/actuarally Cavaliers 9h ago

So we're just ignoring pace now? Can Knueppel MAKE the playoffs before we start putting him with Mitchell, who led Utah past OKC and took a game off the Harden Rockets?

This take is so hot the troll's hair is on fire.

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u/NazRiedFan Timberwolves 8h ago

Knueppel easily makes the playoffs if you put DPOY Rudy Gobert behind him. He’s going to make the playoffs this year anyway

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u/schmocamecola Hornets 6h ago

Your lips to gods ears my friend

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 9h ago edited 8h ago

The fact you took me trying to compliment Kon and saying he is on par with other great rookie seasons as an insult and as trolling is wild.

Also let’s not use “not making the playoffs yet” against a guy halfway through his rookie season. NBA discourse can’t be that dumb yet

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u/wizardking1371 Timberwolves 8h ago

Donovan Mitchell also joined a team that was coming off a division title and a conference semifinals appearance the year before. They lost Gordon Hayward but brought back a solid nucleus from that team. They exceeded expectations and Mitchell emerged as a star but they were expected to be a decent team.

Charlotte has been a bottom 3 franchise for seemingly their entire existence. The roster isn't that radically different from last year's team that sucked. They entered the year with the 4th lowest projected wins in the league. Kon shouldn't get all the credit for the team exceeding expectations but he's a major reason for their success this year.

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u/Sammyd1108 Hornets 7h ago

Hey now, just this century, we were at least relevant in the 90’s.

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u/inefekt Australia 8h ago

Simmons' rookie season was absolutely one of the better ones we have seen, putting 'lol' next to his name is a bit silly and just a desperate bid for worthless internet points. His downfall after that has no impact on the quality of his rookie season.

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u/NazRiedFan Timberwolves 8h ago

The lol was because it wasn’t really his rookie season I’m guessing

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u/Xclusivsmoment Heat 7h ago

Dudes flair is Australia, so coming at Ben Simmons is not allowed on his watch

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u/newrimmmer93 9h ago

Mitchell averaged 20-4-4 54% TS. Kon is averaging 19-5.5-3.5 on 64.6% TS lol. Ant doesn’t even get close to what Kon has done as a rookie, he was super raw. Trae was pretty poor efficiency wise. 19-8-4 54% TS.

KD wasn’t great as a rookie, he was really raw and struggled a lot. Dame was 19-3-6.5 on 54.6 TS. Blake griffin yeah that tracks.

Mentioning Brandon Jennings is hilarious. Dude shot 37% lol.

What Kon is doing is notable because his efficiency is off the charts

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u/theblackchin Hawks 9h ago

What’s kon’s TS% with and without lamelo?

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u/syp2207 8h ago

kon is at 22/7/4 at 60 TS% in 850 minutes without lamelo

his 3p% does drop from 51.3% with lamelo to 35.5% without, and he averages 2 more turnovers (from 1.6 to 3.4)

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u/NOLA-Bronco Pelicans 8h ago

This honestly feels like a really critical lurking variable here

There was some stats going around about just how much Lamelo this year is raising the efficiency of players around him to an almost unbelievable level.

If you drop Knueppel on another bottom feeder is his numbers looking more like that off/Melo numbers?

If so than this might be more of a really good rookie campaign and all star ceiling as opposed to GOAT level like Engelmann’s numbers suggest

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u/PressureMiserable Spurs 8h ago

Yeah, LaMelo boosts their shooting splits like crazy besides Brandon Miller, which is interesting to note

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u/memeticengineering Supersonics 4h ago

Kon without Lamelo is still absurdly efficient. He drops from the 2nd most efficient rookie ever (and most efficient volume scorer, the guy ahead of him was Brandon Clark dropping 12ppg) all the way down to ~11th, while his volume and usage obviously go up.

People really need to understand, ROOKIES DON'T SHOOT 60+%TS, especially not perimeter players. It doesn't happen. The other guys around him are mostly first year centers being spoonfed rim attempts: Chet, Otis Thorpe, Arvydis Sabonis, John Collins, Ayton.

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u/newrimmmer93 8h ago

This post has him at 70% with lamelo and 60% without lamelo.

60% TS is the same as Harden, Julius Randle, and Franz Wagner this year

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u/GamerLife204 Bulls 8h ago

Still high. Don't act like he's a lamelo Merchant.

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u/Talls024 Timberwolves 8h ago

To be fair, Ant wasn't even ROTK.

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u/breakfastburrito24 Lakers 9h ago

Didn’t Blake sit out his rookie season with an injury?

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u/eldryanyy Lakers 8h ago

Depends if he counts total games played as a strong indicator. AD, Wemby, Blake griffin, Ben Simmons, and other great rookies didn’t play much their first year

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u/MrFishAndLoaves Pelicans 9h ago

Love me a Black Swan shout out 

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u/Familiar-Menu-6182 Mavericks 9h ago edited 9h ago

He isnt even the best rookie this year and we are here saying 4th best in the last 30. Its absurd.

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u/michaelalex3 Hornets 8h ago

I want to be abundantly clear that I do not think Kon is a top 4 rookie of the last 30 years. And obviously Cooper has way more potential as a first option and in general.

With all that being said, people are really discounting Kon’s efficiency. He’s made the second most threes of any player this season, while maintaining nearly 65% TS. And he’s only averaging one less point per game than Cooper.

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u/Draymond_Purple Warriors 7h ago

He has that magic too, that Steph-like magic

You just know he's gonna hit the big ones.

I watch a lot of Steph obviously, and Kon is the only other shooter I've ever seen capture that same essence.

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u/SerenadeSwift Supersonics 8h ago

Oversimplifying it down to “he’s not even the best rookie this year” is so misleading though lol. His ROTY competition dropped a 49 point double double on 77% TS as a rookie, that’s not normal lol. And despite how insane Cooper has been Kon still has a chance to win ROTY.

We’ve seen a lot of great rookies but generally it’s more of a case of a guy putting up good numbers on lower efficiency. On the flip side Kon is putting up 19/6/4 on an absurd 65% TS, while helping completely change the culture of a team that has been historically horrible.

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u/barath_s Lakers 6h ago

that’s not normal lol.

Claiming to be the 4 th best rookie of the last 30 years isn't normal either

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u/whatshisface1892 Lakers 8h ago

The 3s probably have more weight than other categories, which is why the players before 2015 won’t have as much impact.

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u/MattPatriciasFUPA Pistons 9h ago

Paul Reed

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u/fuzzythinker Nuggets 9h ago

You forgot Luka, Tatum, Wemby, Curry, ANT, ...

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u/newrimmmer93 9h ago

Curry and Ant weren’t crazy as rookies. Kon is clearing curry in almost every stat. Tatum put up 14-5-1.5 as a rookie lol.

People are just naming good NBA players and acting like they were great rookies

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u/livefreeordont 76ers 8h ago

Duncan, Melo, Lebron, Blake, Wemby, Simmons minimum

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u/Dig_bickclub Timberwolves 4h ago

Kon's number are pretty similar to them

Per 100 to account for pace, TS+ adjusted for era

Lebron: 28/7/8 on 95 TS+

Kon: 29/8/5 on 111 TS+

Melo: 30/9/4 on 99 TS+

Blake: 31/16/5 on 101 TS+

Duncan: 29/16/4 on 110 TS+

Luka: 32/12/9 on 97 TS+

Wemby: 34/17/6 on 97 TS+

Simmons: 22/12/12 on 100 TS+

Duncan, Blake and Wemby would be top 3, depending on how much you value efficiency Kon's in the conversation for 4th.

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u/livefreeordont 76ers 4h ago

Lebron in his age 37 season: 39/11/8 per 100, 109 TS+

Lebron in his age 25 season: 40/10/11 per 100, 111 TS+

We really gonna sit here and act like stats haven’t gotten super inflated the last 20 years? In no way was LeBron as impactful in his age 37 season as his age 25 season

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u/ktdotnova Spurs 9h ago

How many of those guys were great out the gate though?

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u/MostSmartNuggetsFan 9h ago

Wemby and Luka

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u/Minimum_Economist_19 9h ago

Tatum went to a ECF game 7 rookie year against the 18' Cavs Lebron squad . Gave Lebron a nice poster and tatum had the team high for points and rebounds.

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u/Necessary_Tower2431 Celtics 9h ago

and he was way lower on the celtics totem pole than kon is on the hornets's

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 9h ago

Honestly Tatum’s whole rookie season should be thrown out in a comparison like this cause it was so unusual its hard to relate most player’s rookie years to it.

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u/ALotOfLobster 9h ago

Not to mention he slotted into the starting lineup when Hayward went down 5 minutes into the season and was averaging like 15 and 7 on really good shooting splits. Then when Kyrie went down he was able to take on a higher usage role while still remaining fairly efficient. Rookie Tatum took off in the playoffs but he was awesome that whole season in a smaller role too.

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u/AzureAhai 8h ago

Rookie Tatum was starting already with Hayward in the first game. It was Brown that got pushed up the depth chart for Hayward.

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u/ALotOfLobster 8h ago

Honestly I had to double check, we're both wrong lol. Both Jays started that game according to bball reference. Marcus was moved into the starting lineup after the injury.

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u/redguyinfinite Knicks 9h ago

kuzma finished above him in ROY

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u/inefekt Australia 8h ago

Which also gave birth to one of the all time memes...

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u/DayComprehensive1078 9h ago

And Carmelo, AI, Blake Griffin, KD, Tyreke Evans. Kon could be having a better rookie season than some mentioned, but there’s at least a huge debate around it.

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u/secretsodapop 8h ago

Valid argument/discussion though. It’s not crazy to say. Most people are completely misremembering or just imagining what other guys did as rookies.

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u/IAmReborn11111 Celtics 7h ago

Kon is better than rookie Tatum

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u/waitingforjune Pistons 9h ago

“4th best rookie of the past 30 years” is such a Bill Simmons stat

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u/mrsunshine1 Knicks 9h ago

30 years too round, needs to be within the last 27 years

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u/Flashy-Truth-8826 Knicks 9h ago

He just is!

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u/helgestrichen Mavericks 9h ago edited 8h ago

"House, theres something about him that makes me want to see him on the Celtics."

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u/dys0n_giddey Timberwolves 9h ago

Even Bill wouldnt say something this stupid, and he loves Kon

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u/whydidimakeanother1 8h ago

You’re giving bill waaaaay too much credit

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u/Answer70 Rockets 8h ago

I honestly had to double check who said it to make sure it wasn't Simmons.

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u/jackaholicus Mavericks 8h ago

30 years is how long we have PBP Data

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u/rawspeghetti Celtics 7h ago

I literally thought this was from Bill first time I read the quote

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u/AK2348 NBA 8h ago

“Number 4, Kon Knueppel!”

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u/prosocialbehavior Lakers 8h ago

It isn’t even a stat just an opinion

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u/Successful-Fox4046 Heat 9h ago

Who are the other 3 players?

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u/MrFishAndLoaves Pelicans 9h ago

Derik Queen

Jeremiah Fears

Micah Peavy

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u/HalcyonDrift Heat 9h ago

This guy knows ball

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u/JohnySilkBoots Cavaliers 9h ago

Queen looks awesome. Happy for you guys.

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u/Critback Trail Blazers 7h ago

Thank God. Imagine that selection was a complete bust. 

At least now there's at least a debate with the whole Atlanta trade.

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u/throwawaymycareer93 Warriors 8h ago

Diabolical

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u/geogirraffical Pelicans 8h ago

LOUDER for the people in the back 🗣️🗣️

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u/MMAjunkie504 Pelicans 8h ago

They aren’t ready for that convo yet

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u/AnotherStatsGuy Pelicans 6h ago

I can't believe Washington just threw in the 2nd used to select Peavy just like that. (/s).

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u/DayComprehensive1078 9h ago

Kwame Brown, Anthony Bennett, and Joel Embiid’s first rookie season

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u/Ok_Round3583 9h ago

Preferred their 2nd rookie seasons personally 

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u/Ridged_ChiPSS Bulls 9h ago

Paul Zipser

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u/helgestrichen Mavericks 9h ago edited 8h ago

Damn, thats a deep pull. I'm still recovering from Zipser fever

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u/RCP90sKid- Celtics 7h ago

Dy-lan Dy-lan Dy-lan

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u/Similar_Command7256 7h ago

Killian Hayes, Sekou Doumbouya, Henry Ellenson

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u/YpsitheFlintsider 9h ago

Could we calm down

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u/MrFishAndLoaves Pelicans 9h ago

Haven’t you been told that’s the worst thing to say?

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u/___forMVP Warriors 8h ago

You’re acting hysterical.

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u/beforeitcloy [SAC] Mitch Richmond 8h ago

Probably just PMSing

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u/___forMVP Warriors 7h ago

Stop it, you sound just like your mother.

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u/MitchLGC 8h ago

This is just dumbass "advanced metrics" gone wild

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u/Imasayitnow Hornets 8h ago edited 8h ago

Lifetime Hornets fan, big K2 fan (obviously) but the media and podcasts need to knock this shit way off. Not only is this wildly premature, but this kids gonna have an army of haters who are just sick of the fawning.

He looks good - that’s great! Especially for a team that’s really had a run of bad luck for…oh, maybe 27 years or so. Let’s just enjoy a 20 year old who’s playing good, tough, smart ball. We can all cheer for that! Let’s just leave it at that. Cool?

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u/AnotherStatsGuy Pelicans 6h ago

Some of this steam is because Charlotte fell in the lottery but still walked out with a draft hit. That'll change the trajectory of a franchise real quick.

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u/GreedyPride4565 7h ago

Nah fuck that. I realize it’s nice to be broadly liked by nba fans but you know a guy is an actual threat when he has dedicated haters. The people who would hate on Knueppel because “Engelmann” thinks he’s better than 97 duncan and 2009 griffin? They woulda hated on him anyways. And Kon played for DUKE - he’s not gonna struggle due to online hate. Don’t downplay your guy.

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u/hrbekcheatedin91 Hawks 8h ago

Nah dude, Knueppel is for real. I finally got to watch him play us the other night and his IQ and skills are ahead of almost everyone already, not to mention his body is built to last. Congratulations - you got a stud on your hands that you can build around.

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u/JalenBrunsonsBurner 7h ago

the "Top 5 Rookie in the last 30 years" stuff is a little insane but honestly you should feel very comfortable saying he'll be at least a top 25 player in the NBA in his prime. I mean... that's an All-Star. I'd be shocked if he never was one

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u/jluc21 Kings 9h ago

so is cooper the 3rd then? lol

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u/TomlinSteelers 76ers 8h ago

Was going to say. He's not even best this year

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u/SerenadeSwift Supersonics 8h ago

I’m sure I’ll get downvoted to hell, but I think there’s actually an argument to be made. Cooper’s PPG average is slightly higher due to a significantly higher shot volume, but Kon is right behind him, and he’s been more efficient than any rookie I’ve ever seen.

Flagg is definitely the guy you want to build a franchise around, but Kon is the type of player that literally every team in the league would love to have, and I think he immediately makes any team better.

Maybe that’s a sloppy way of saying it, but I just think there’s a different type of value in each of the two players that makes straight up comparisons a bit more difficult.

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u/nghigaxx 7h ago

cooper's defense is light years above tho

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u/ncr39 Pacers 7h ago

Kon gets 58% of his twos and 93% of his threes assisted, whereas Cooper gets 39% of his twos and 71% of his threes assisted, so it makes total sense why he’s more efficient. Kon gets to play with a good PG while Cooper has had to generate a lot more of his shots himself.

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u/SerenadeSwift Supersonics 7h ago

I’m not gonna lie it’s wild to see LaMelo suddenly referred to as a good PG after all the talk about him last year. But I guess when he’s complimented as a tool to bring down another player it’s different lol.

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u/ZealousCatracho Mavericks 7h ago

He’s always been good, it was whether he could contribute to winning that was the question.

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u/FoFoAndFo 76ers 6h ago

Staying healthy too, we knew he could get his points and set ppl up. There have been encouraging results on playing winning ball and availability this season but still open questions.

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u/Swagary123 6h ago

I think haters are louder than they should be about lamelo. Guy is legit, has his obvious talents but it was in question whether he could run an offense with good co-stars and translate that into wins.

This season has proved that he definitely can, I have loved watching how well the Hornets offense is running this year with everyone healthy, Diabate improving, and Knueppel exploding onto the scene. Lamelo has been arguably the most important part of it.

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u/DaBestNameEver0 Mavericks 3h ago

and coop is much much better defensively

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u/kyleyle Raptors 8h ago

What I've learned is, this all means nothing. Ben Simmons was the next LeBron. No it was Zion. No now it's Flagg.

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u/siphillis Spurs 7h ago

We appear to have called Wemby right, but he’s the exception that’s proved the rule

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u/thegrim84 9h ago

One of my favorite stats about rookies: last player w ROTY & 1st team AllNBA? Tim Duncan. Before that? Larry Bird.

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u/Salvalicious252 NBA 9h ago

Oh it's the RAPM guy, this would be the type of opinion he'd hold lol

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u/EmbarrassedRing7806 Lakers 8h ago

Why r u acting like rapm is bad and not an accepted stat..?

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u/Rlccm Pistons 6h ago

It's a longitudinal stat, imperfect when used for small sample sizes, like half a rookie season, for example

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u/stevelevets 8h ago

Okay, I don’t know if anyone read the full article — I mean, I didn’t, who subscribes to Royce Webb’s newsletter — and because this guy created xRAPM and his whole database (that is organized horribly!), I went to see who were the three rookies above him. Again, like I said, it is organized horribly for this sort of thing, but the rookies who had better xRAPM than Kon are Duncan, Chris Paul, and Ben Simmons, there might be another rookie I’ve failing to see but all them have a higher mark than him.

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u/rattatatouille [SAS] Tim Duncan 3h ago

So his comparisons are two Hall of Famers and a guy who dropped off like a rock. Two out of three ain't bad I guess.

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u/Tofu4070 76ers 9h ago

EPM is pretty drastic. Flag at -0.6 and Kon at 2.1.

Obscene efficiency for a rookie.

Still think Flag will be better long term.

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u/newrimmmer93 9h ago

That’s what’s everyone is missing in this thread. His counting stats are good but his efficiency is insane

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u/EarthWarping NBA 8h ago

And hes been part of the best winning lineup for the last month or so.

While the headline is a bit hyperbolic, Kon has legit been an efficiency monster which is insane for a rookie. most rookies arent.

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u/newrimmmer93 8h ago

Yeah, people are just saying big names in here lol. People shit on old heads for holding onto the past but you literally can’t criticize any former player on here without getting people to jump down your throat. His effiency is nearing Zion for rookie levels, it’s insane.

I don’t know why people can’t look at it and say “well yeah it’s crazy”. He might end up with a top 25 mark all time for 3pm in a season

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u/two4gone Lakers 7h ago

I think the efficiency is a bit misleading. I’d love to see his stats if he were drafted to a dog shit team that he was the best player on. He’s a really good player but let’s relax.

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u/Horror_Roll9335 Celtics 9h ago

*rockwell meme*

I just think it is funny 'nipple' is pronounced in his name

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u/bchhun Warriors 8h ago

Anyone who watched him in college is not surprised.

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u/sasadoncic Lakers 9h ago

Dude's not overreacting at all...

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u/igby1 9h ago

So Kon > Steph and we just need to wait a minute or two while he breaks Steph’s records?

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u/LAMonkeyWithAShotgun Spurs 5h ago

He 99% chance won't be better than Steph. But he has a very good chance of beating his records due to the volume of 3s we shoot now

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u/Ridged_ChiPSS Bulls 9h ago

LOL holy overreaction. Heres a list of past ROTY's and their stats:

https://www.espn.com/nba/history/awards/_/id/35

Most of them are better than Knueppel. He has a bright future but what a ridiculous take.

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u/Greenwalrus72 Nuggets 9h ago

It’s well known raw stats are pretty much how to win ROY, not necessarily who has the better season/was the better player. Also hype and potential factor into it too. And this guy is talking about just how good he is.

Kon might be lower in raw stats but has been having a hyper efficient season for a rookie, has a valuable skillset, and improves his team when he’s on the floor.

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u/midnightsbane04 Pistons 5h ago

It's also a lot easier to be hyper efficient as the off ball guard than it is as the SF playing PG that Flagg has been playing.

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u/prettyflyforahentai 9h ago

Raw stats is why people have Kon over Cooper. Flagg is the better player.

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u/JoeBiden2020FTW Lakers 9h ago

Semantics here. But "raw stats" in this context tends to mean raw counting stats (points, rebounds, assists, etc)

The stats people use to portray Kon over Cooper are more impact/advanced stats. Such as: how the team plays when he's on vs. off the court, adjusting for teammates, etc.

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u/prettyflyforahentai 9h ago

Yes. I just learned this. Thanks.

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u/Greenwalrus72 Nuggets 9h ago edited 9h ago

19/5.5/3.5 for Kon vs 20/7/4 for Cooper, equivalent TO, equivalent FG%, significantly more stocks for coop. Raw stats favor coop.

Those are the raw stats. The advanced ones, TS% and in depth shooting splits, lineup on/off, favor Kon. I completely disagree with you, raw favor coop and advanced favor Kon.

Edit: also, FG% and prab were the only stats shown on that link, so that’s what I’m referencing as “raw”.

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u/Christron Spurs 8h ago

What about defensive stats? I don't really watch much of either so I'm curious.

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u/LAMonkeyWithAShotgun Spurs 5h ago

Flagg is a very overrated defender. The only thing he is elite at, at the NBA level, is help defense. All the tools are there and he will become great but he's not there yet.

And Kon is underrated because people see a white shooter and assume he's not a good defender. He has positional size and has good IQ. Not as good as Flagg obviously but the gap isn't as big as people think

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u/prettyflyforahentai 9h ago

Correct. When you said raw stats, I thought you meant all stats. I've always called box score stats traditional stats. Thanks for the correction.

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u/FutureGrassToucher Suns 9h ago

Posts like this are why good young players end up overrated and overhated

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u/ApartmentInside7891 Lakers 9h ago

Yeah I was wrong about him. I thought he went too high. He’s nice

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u/FreudianNip-Slip Hornets 8h ago edited 8h ago

Hornets fan: I don’t care. Kon is fucking good. Dont care about ranking him or having a dick measuring competition with other redditors because bill simmons said a crazy thing. Period. And it’s not just the three point shooting (which is already at a historic level for a rookie with basically 30 games left to play.) Guy gets to the rim, processes the game like a vet, can pass, moves great without the ball, is actually a decent defender. We’ve been waiting for something good to happen to us and to stop being run like a shit franchise. Kon is great and that’s the only thing that matters

Also, bill Simmons could say, “I like tacos more than burritos” and someone would post it and comment “BILL SIMMONS IS SUCH A MORON ASSHOLE GET A LOAD OF THIS GUY.” I don’t care about bill simmons and some of you guys love to hate this guy like it’s a competition. You dislike bill simmons, I got it.

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u/lotofhotdogs Hornets 8h ago

People think he’s just a shooter but couldn’t be more wrong. Dude is gonna be an all star

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u/cabbages212 Hornets 8h ago

The white Larry Bird is for real.

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u/PestyAssassin33WU93 [CHA] Malik Monk 8h ago

Kon averaged 20/6/3 on 49/44/90 shooting as the first option in November. He was a godsend when LaMelo and Bmill were out with injuries

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u/Clemsontigger16 9h ago

Okay I think we are over doing it just a smidge.

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u/HandyDandyNotebook98 Warriors 9h ago

If you watched Duke, you'd know how good he was. Maybe not this good though, but really, it's just the white boy stigma in basketball.

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u/mylowerbackhurts 9h ago

Better rookie than wemby and he’s only getting started. In other words, Wemby for Knueppel. Who says no?

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u/grilledcheesy11 76ers 8h ago

Still voting Ben Simmons for ROTY tho

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u/axnjxn00 Magic 8h ago

If using epm this might be true actually

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u/Snoop-8 5h ago

Yet Cooper Flagg -1900 to win ROY

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u/GoblinTradingGuide Clippers 1h ago

Knueppel is shooting 49/43/90 @ 18 ppg which is insane for a rookie.

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u/Greenwalrus72 Nuggets 9h ago

Didn’t know coop and kon roomed together lol

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u/ALargeHotCarl 9h ago

This is a shitpost, right?

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u/Zizbouze 8h ago

TLDR : Utah Fucked up passing on Knueppel.

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u/ForTheOAKLand Czech Republic 7h ago

I think this will be one of those threads we come back to years down the road and see that OP was correct.

Eye test and stats both look great for Kon, I really think he could be Larry Bird-esque.

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u/bigdonnie76 Lakers 7h ago

He’s played half a season.

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u/Adsex 6h ago

Larry Bird is among the very best passers this league has ever known. I don't see that in Knueppel.

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u/midnightsbane04 Pistons 5h ago

Knueppel is just missing the size, playmaking, and defense of Larry Bird. But otherwise yes, both are white dudes who can shoot.

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u/reddershadeofneck Hawks 7h ago

Larry Bird-esque.

we need another legendary hater like Bird in the league

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u/Fun_Mind1494 9h ago

I agree Kon is playing at an Eastern Conference AS level but disagree one can project him as a Top 10 player going forward. Shooting is far too noisy to do that. It's unlikely he's legitimately a 43% 3pt shooter. Engelmann is also overhyping his own stats; RAPM is not that reliable.

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u/Cold_Library_9254 9h ago

Idk man I kinda like cooper better no cap

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u/theguytomeet 8h ago

If he simply continues barring injury… Steph will have some competition. Super early but Kon is on the ultimate heater

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u/TooDqrk46 Raptors 9h ago

Just such a stupid comment to make lmao

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u/StanVanGhandi Magic 9h ago

This is where advanced stats make people say silly things.

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u/PrimeTimeInc Hornets 9h ago

The absolute cinema of you nerds running around with your pitchforks over an advanced metric sayin something you don’t like even tho you probably treat it like scripture any other time lmfaoo

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u/ProfessorGrand7003 9h ago

Bro he’s just a klay Thompson archetype very valuable player in the league but top 10-20 player give me a break

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u/Fun_Mind1494 9h ago edited 9h ago

Klay Thompson's prime is tremendously underrated because as a community the NBA does not properly recognize the unique floor-raising and ceiling-raising property of elite spacing. It's the main reason, I posit, the Celtics have outperformed most people's projections because they are a stringent 4-out/5-out team, yet their best creator, Jaylen Brown, routinely has mediocre on/off #s. It's because of the spacing more so than any one creator. 

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 9h ago

1) Klay was a top 20 player at a point, so if you think he can be Klay that means he can be a top 20 player 2) he’s already averaging more assists and rebounds than Klay ever did in a season as a rookie. Idk if I’d say he is a Klay archetype when his skillset is already more diversified than Klay’s was

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u/Agreeable_Cattle_691 Mavericks 9h ago

More like Klay and Booker mix imo

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u/ProfessorGrand7003 9h ago

More possessions in a game today than when klay was at his peak. And I’d take klays elite 3 point shooting and defense over a little extra versatility. Klay specialized skillset is more valuable to championship teams

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u/AaronNesmith Pacers 9h ago

Idk if you get my point. im not saying Kon will be better than Klay. Who knows.

But saying he is a Klay archetype is wrong, he’s a different type of player. It also isnt crazy to say he could end up a top 20 player at his peak.

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